The Cardinals come to Bobby Dodd for the first time since 2020 riding a three-game win streak, and the Yellow Jackets are two-score underdogs. A repeat of Pitt’s 34-11 beatdown is not out of the question, given how explosive the Louisville offense has been this year and how disastrous the injury-decimated defense has been thus far. Defensive tackles Shymeik Jones and Landen Marshall are out, as is defensive end A.J. Hoffler. Brent Key being 0-2 against Louisville isn’t particularly encouraging.

The woeful Yellow Jackets run defense versus Louisville’s strength on the ground is one of the biggest mismatches of this game. Opponents have been able to run the ball at will against Tech. While Pitt just had freshman Damon Ferguson Jr. tear off 185 yards and two touchdowns against Tech, it’s not a new problem. Even the FCS Mercer Bears banked 188 yards from 46 attempts in their heavy defeat against the Jackets.

Louisville is not an appealing proposition for a defense in that state; they’re hot on the ground, with preseason All-ACC running back Isaac Brown running for 139 yards and scoring three touchdowns in nine attempts against Stanford.

Through Pitt, Georgia Tech allowed 219.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry; the Cardinals averaged 225.1 rushing yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry.

The turnover battle is central to both teams. Key’s Georgia Tech is 16-4 when it takes care of the ball better than its opponent, and that is something they’ve struggled with this season. Key told the media Tuesday, “We have had a blatant disregard for the football. Bottom line, a blatant disregard for protecting the football,” per Georgia Tech On SI. His frustration centered on the 15 fumbles, five or six of those being lost, and six interceptions thrown, two of those being returned for touchdowns.

Louisville is even stronger when it wins the turnover battle, going 22-1 under Jeff Brohm.

Positive turnover differential isn’t magic for Key’s Tech, though. It wasn’t enough at Pitt, where the Jackets forced three turnovers and finished +1, but scored only 11 points all night. Tech needs turnovers to win, but they aren’t enough on their own.

Field position matters for this ailing Tech team; at Pitt, Tech converted just 3 of 18 third downs and only 1 of 5 fourth downs, averaging 7.6 yards needed on third down. Pitt usually started drives at its own 40-yard line, whereas Tech started at its own 26. Facing a Louisville team that scores 40 points per game, Tech can’t afford long fields or frequent third-and-long situations.

Louisville’s defense has been vulnerable, allowing about 27 points and 269 passing yards per game. Tech’s offense struggled on Halloween, scoring just 11 points and gaining 238 yards, both season lows. But if Tech is able to control field position and avoid negative plays, it can put together long drives. That would help keep Louisville’s explosive offense off the field and protect Tech’s worn-down run defense.

Whether Alberto Mendoza or Grady Adamson starts remains unsettled, and there’s little to compare. Adamson has played about a half of football. There’s a case to be made for both.

While Mendoza may be a poor candidate against Louisville in particular, considering one of his main weaknesses is ball security, and they’re good at taking the ball away, he’s still a 70% passer whom the coaching staff is contemplating benching for one rough day against the Panthers.

While not mathematically eliminated from a bowl bid, considering the opponents following the Cardinals are a decent Clemson, a ranked Wake Forest, and a very formidable Georgia, it’s not pessimistic to say they practically are, and seeing what the program has in Adamson may be worth the time. Key hedged Tuesday, acknowledging that backup quarterbacks usually have it easier while seeming to decline to make a statement about his opinion of the skills of either: “At the end of the day, Grady’s coming in last two weeks and giving us a jolt of energy. It’s always a lot easier coming off the bench as the guy, but we’ll sit down on Thursday and make a decision Thursday evening as a staff on who goes out and gives us the best opportunity to win this football game.”

Regardless, whoever takes the snap on Saturday must take advantage of Louisville’s weakness in the air. If Tech throws well on early downs and keeps possession, it can make the game shorter and give its tired run defense a break. If not, Saturday could look just like the Pittsburgh game.