The Yellow Jackets are on a skid after losing 34-11 to Pitt, falling to 2-6 and 1-4 in the ACC. Tech is a heavy underdog against the Cardinals, with FanDuel listing Louisville as a 14.5-point favorite as of Tuesday, and needs an upset to avoid its worst season since going 1-10 in 1994.

Louisville is almost the opposite of Tech in terms of form, coming off a 52-24 win over Stanford and seeking a fourth straight win. They’re possibly one of the worst matchups for the ailing Jackets given how much Tech’s defense has struggled.

1. This is one of the best offenses in the country

Through seven games, the Cards have had 52 plays of 20+ yards and led the FBS in plays of 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards. They also had 11 touchdowns of 50+ yards, the only FBS team with that many.

Much of this explosiveness comes on the ground: they’re averaging 5.9 yards per carry, fourth in the FBS, and 215 rushing yards per game, their best since Lamar Jackson’s final season in 2017.

Pitt just ran for 281 yards against the injury-stricken Yellow Jackets defense, and Boston College ran the ball at will for 399 yards and five touchdowns. I don’t see a realistic way for Tech to stop the Cardinals’ run game.

2. Lincoln Kienholz is the Card who you should pay attention to

Kienholz is a former Ohio State QB who arrived at Louisville last winter, and he’s a threat on the ground: 11 rushing TDs through eight games. Only Lamar Jackson and Malik Cunningham have run for more touchdowns in a season at Louisville. His 82-yard touchdown at Syracuse was the longest running touchdown by a quarterback in school history.

In their victory against Stanford, he threw for 250 yards, junior RB Isaac Brown ran for 139 yards, and WR Tre Richardson had 140 receiving yards. Both are having big years: Brown has 707 rushing yards at 7.7 per carry, and Richardson has 633 receiving yards at 15.8 per catch.

That’s a big task for Georgia Tech’s wounded defense: a mobile QB with a strong supporting cast, against a unit that’s already struggling to tackle in space.

3. Kaleb Beasley could make Tech’s bad QB situation worse, but Louisville can be mistake-prone

Kaleb Beasley was tied for the national lead with five interceptions, all in the last five games, fueling the Cards’ hot streak. He’s the first Louisville player with five INTs in a season since Jaire Alexander in 2016.

Pitt’s pass rush got five sacks and kept Alberto Mendoza and Grady Adamson from getting settled. Tech had only 106 total yards across 12 series before Adamson came in, and the season has gotten to the point where putting Adamson out there to see what he has may be worth it, especially considering he’s a sophomore and Mendoza has gone cold.

Tech does have a path to an upset. Louisville can be careless with the ball, and that has led to close losses. The Cards would have to catch the yips like they did against NC State, fumbling five times and losing three, all of which led to NC State points. Tech is 16-4 under Brent Key when it commits fewer turnovers than its opponent. Winning the turnover battle could make it competitive, but Beasley makes that a tall order.

My score prediction: Louisville 41, Georgia Tech 13. That’s nearly double FanDuel’s line, but I don’t see this defense getting enough stops to keep it closer. A competitive game, let alone an upset, would mean something for Brent Key and a program searching for signs of life. That’s not nothing.