On the warm, humid evening of March 9, Scott Cross’ Troy defeated Charlie Henry’s Georgia Southern Eagles 77-61 in the Sun Belt tournament final. Now, in Cross’ second game as the Tech skipper, his 1-0 Yellow Jackets face Henry’s also undefeated squad again this Friday, but with largely new rosters and, for Cross, a new program.

Can Tech retain its interior advantage while improving its shooting and ball security?

Henry returns for his fourth year as coach of the Sun Belt outfit, with his now mostly departed team finishing 21-16 and reaching the tournament final last season. While it’s hard to predict exactly how Henry’s team will play because of the roster turnover, last season the Eagles had high three-point shot volumes and free-throw totals.

Eltramon Smith is making his Atlanta homecoming. The 6-foot-7 Stephen F. Austin transfer had a day to remember in Southern’s season opener against Ball State: 24 points, five rebounds, and 9-for-11 from the line. This is notable considering he averaged 1.9 points per game at Stephen F. Austin last season.

Another player to watch is Dallas Gardner, the preseason second-team All-Sun Belt guard returning from injury. He had a strong day against Ball State off the bench, racking up 13 rebounds and 13 points in 28 minutes.

In the frontcourt, the player to watch is Elidjah Savane, who grabbed six rebounds, four of them offensive, in the Eagles’ opener.

Fouls and rebounds could decide the game

One question about this matchup is whether Tech can defend without allowing the Eagles to draw fouls. Southern went 22-for-36 from the line against Ball State, with Smith and Gardner combining for 20 of those attempts. Tech was on the opposite side of fouls against Hampton, committing 24 fouls that sent Hampton to the line 30 times. This will test whether the Yellow Jackets’ physical defense can contain Southern and contest shots without fouling. Henry’s last team set a program record with 878 free-throw attempts.

Tech may have an advantage on the boards. Tech outrebounded Hampton 59-33 and led 48-22 in points in the paint, while Southern was outrebounded 47-39 despite Gardner’s 13 boards. Cross emphasizes rebounds, so exploiting the paint is a possible Tech route to victory. Watch for Cole Kirouac when he gets minutes after his big 10-rebound day against Hampton.

There’s also the matter of Cross’ strategies and rotational choices: is the same no-center five going to start with forwards filling the role? Will Tech roll 11 deep in closer games?

Turnovers and outside shooting remain questions

The most pressing variable is whether Tech can hold onto the rock and shoot better. The Jackets had 18 turnovers and went 4-for-28 from three against Hampton, while Southern stole the ball nine times, forced 15 Ball State turnovers, and committed 10 themselves. Southern was also poor from the outside in its opener, going 5-for-19 from three. This isn’t a case of skilled shooters confronting Yellow Jackets who are mostly dangerous in the paint, but Southern also held Ball State to 5-for-37 from three and could turn a bad perimeter offense worse.

Georgia Tech faced Georgia Southern at McCamish last November, winning 68-66 after falling behind by 11 in the first half. Both rosters are mostly new, though. Tech leads the series 6-2, with six straight wins after losing two in the 1950s, including last year’s win.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 76, Georgia Southern 64

Tech’s keys to victory are winning the rebounding battle, limiting turnovers, and making the Eagles finish against set defense rather than letting them draw fouls. Southern’s route to victory lies mostly in Smith and Gardner drawing fouls, the Eagles disrupting the Jackets’ offense, and competing with Tech on the boards.

I predict a 76-64 Tech win. The Jackets’ rebounding and paint offense are their advantages, while turnover problems and the Eagles’ ability to draw fouls could keep Southern competitive.